منابع مشابه
Modeling and Forecasting Effects of Crude Oil Price Changes on the US and UK GDP
       This paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and GDP of the US, as the largest oil consumer, and the UK, as the oil producer. GMDH neural network and MLFF neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast GDP responses to the oil price changes. The resul...
متن کاملmodeling and forecasting effects of crude oil price changes on the us and uk gdp
â â â â â â â this paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and gdp of the us, as the largest oil consumer, and the uk, as the oil producer. gmdh neural network and mlff neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast gdp responses to the oil price changes. the resul...
متن کاملOil Price Shocks and GDP Growth: Do Energy Shares Amplify Causal Effects?
The paper estimates the effect of oil price fluctuations on GDP growth, using linear and nonlinear VAR models with data from 12 countries. It reports strong significance for the existence of non-linear moderator effects caused by a decline in the oil-to-energy share, which weakens the causal effect of oil prices on economic growth. A consideration of the relationship of oil prices and GDP over ...
متن کاملAn Assessment of IMF Medium-Term Forecasts of GDP Growth
This paper assesses the IMF medium-term forecasts—i.e., forecasts for three, four, and five years ahead—of GDP growth published in the WEO, covering most IMF member countries, over the period 1990–2012. Evidence is drawn from surveys and interviews with IMF staff, country authorities, and representatives of the private sector, as well as a quantitative analysis of forecast errors. Results indic...
متن کاملAn Evaluation of Gdp Forecasts Made by Japanese Individual Economists
We evaluate the relative accuracy of real GDP forecasts made by 25 Japanese economists over the past 15 years. The encompassing test reveals the following results. (a) All of these forecasts outperform naïve forecasts. (b) Their current-year forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecasts of VAR, VECM, or the Japanese government. (c) Their year-ahead forecasts are inferior to the correspo...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
سال: 2016
ISSN: 1558-3708,1081-1826
DOI: 10.1515/snde-2015-0116